By the time you read this, it’ll be out of date–British politics are moving at the speed of a slow-motion train wreck–but here’s what I can tell you as of 7 a.m., British summer time (which isn’t a season but the time Britain goes by in the summer):
Yesterday, one lone MP resigned from the Conservative Party and joined the Liberal Democrats, and that was enough to lose the Conservatives their majority and make Boris Johnson the leader of a minority government.
That happened not long after Johnson announced that he would boot out (okay, effectively boot out, but let’s not get into that) any Conservative MP who voted against him. Last night, twenty-one of them did. At that point he became the leader of a government with a significantly smaller minority.
What they voted against him on was–damn this is hard to explain sensibly. Normally, the government has the power to set the agenda for the House of Commons, but the Commons can occasionally seize control of the agenda, and that’s what it did. This will allow the Commons to debate a no-deal Brexit today.
When he lost the vote, Johnson said he’d call for an early election, but he needs the backing of two-thirds of the MPs for that to happen. Since a majority of MPs would be happy to drown him in the Thames, why wouldn’t they support a new election? Because Parliament shuts down for twenty-five days before the election, and Johnson would get to choose the date of the new election. If he chose his timing well, he could lock Parliament in a broom closet, withdraw from the European Union, and hum “Rule Britannia” while they pound on the door and yell, “Let me out!”
So although Labour’s been screaming for an early election, they’re against this one unless a no-deal Brexit is ruled out–which it won’t be.
There are two ways around the need for a two-thirds majority:
First, the government calls for an election using the words “notwithstanding the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.” Then they’d only need a simple majority.
Can they do that, announce that they’re going to call an election ignoring the law governing elections? Apparently so. Do we know how to have fun over here or what?
But, of course, they don’t have a simple majority either. And proposing an election that way would allow MPs to set the election date, so it would lose Johnson his maneuvering room. And the bill could be amended, so Commons could tack on anti-no-deal wording.
It would also have to pass the House of Lords, so it’s a slower process.
Second, the government could call a vote of no confidence in itself.
Yes, seriously.
If it passed, Johnson would be expected to resign and the Commons would try to agree on a new prime minister, who could ask the EU to delay Brexit. If the Commons couldn’t choose a prime minister in fourteen days (there’s a lot of political arm wrestling, not to mention posturing and an ego or two, involved), that would trigger a new election.
The BBC article that I pulled all that from (it’s the link several paragraphs back) calls that a high-risk strategy for the government. It doesn’t say that the crucial word in all this is expected, as in Johnson would be expected to resign, but it’s not entirely clear that he would, or whether he’d have to. The law’s fairly new and contains a lot of unknowns.
But back to the Commons seizing control of its agenda. If an anti-no-deal bill passes the Commons, which it probably will, the next hurdle is shoving it through the House of Lords, where it will, inevitably, be filibustered and amended. There’s an attempt in the works to set a time limit on debate. We’ll see how that goes.
The Scottish National Party is saying that a fall election would be a great opportunity for Scotland to demand a second vote on independence.
*
That’s the headline stuff. In smaller print:
- Scotland’s chief prosecutor has said he wants to intervene in two legal challenges to Johnson’s suspension of Parliament, saying that proroguing Parliament is it’s an abuse of power.
- Speaking of abuses of power, Johnson’s special adviser, Dominic Cummings–the power, and possibly the brains, behind the throne–fired another special adviser, Sonia Khan, calling armed police to have her marched out of 10 Downing Street. He accused her of being the source of a leak–something she denies. The interesting thing here is that she didn’t work for him. She also didn’t work for Cummings’ boss, she worked for the chancellor, Sajid Javid. And Johnson wasn’t consulted about the firing. Read a few articles and you’ll find phrases like “mafia-style” and “reign of terror.” There are calls for an investigation into the firing.
- The government’s set aside £100 million for an information campaign to prepare people for Brexit, even though there are, apparently, questions about whether the government can manage to spend that much in two months. What do they want people to learn for all that money? That we should consult the government’s Brexit website, where they offer some fairly mild advice about travel, business, citizenship, and so forth. With apologies, I relied on a summary for that, not the website itself. The website wants to walk you through only what you need to know, and I bailed out at the point where it asked whether I’m a citizen. I am, but y’know, I just might want to know what happens to people who aren’t. But it’s all okay because the government has placed an order for mugs and T-shirts, so I feel better about it all.
Good morning Ellen,
when I heard the news this morning I wondered what you would have to say on the subject because I could not understand the implications. So thank you very much for providing them and keeping me in the loop of this incredible conundrum. Who would have thought something like this could actually happen?
Inge
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It’s amazing. And in a country without a written constitution, it’s hard to know what the bottom line is on anything.
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I was living in London during the for-against for joining the Common Market(as it was then known) Some folks got a bit worked-up, but I cannot recall any of the debates, arguments, fights being anything like this. Well, OK Shirley’s Dad was against it and her fiance was all for it and Shirley’s Mum thought it would be good when she and her bingo mates could pop across for a day’s shopping.But other than refusing to give Shirley away at the wedding…
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Wow, really? This stuff does get personal. I still remember what it was like in the US during the Vietnam War, when the debate was fought out at dinner tables and in front of TV sets.
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It’s like a massive game of 4D chess!
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I’m trying to picture that and failing. But then, I’m trying to picture this, with the same result. Good comparison.
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Everyone’s doing – trying to calculate all the possible moves and permuations.
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Sorry–this got lost somehow, not in the spam folder but in the inner folds of WordPress. But yes, everyone is.
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Good gracious…
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Yeah, that’s one way of putting it.
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I think my digested summary is ‘Shit happens’. Seriously, I’m running out of ways to describe any of this and remain a) sane, b) lucid, and c) civil to anyone I’m speaking to.
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I do understand. When Trump got elected, I boiled my explanation down to, “We’re insane.”
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Succinct and sadly accurate.
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I had the same feel when Obama was elected (and Trump, not a fan of either). I felt he was too inexperienced for the job, he never completed a single term in any office he was elected to. It’s like electing a high school, college, and McDonalds dropout to CEO. Years later I still think it was a bad idea, same with Trump.
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Obama, I thought, was symbolically wonderful but not a great president. A more experienced politician could have accomplished a good bit more.
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I agree. I’ve often said that if he had waited a few more years, gotten some real experience, that he had the makings of being one of the greats, like Kennedy and Reagan. Neither was perfect, but both had the ability to rally the country and pass serous reform. Sadly, and I don’t blame him 100%, he believed the rhetoric from those pushing him.
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I do wonder, with almost any candidate, how much they’re their own people and how much they’re just the manikins their handlers carry around an dress.
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When he got nominated, I said we have lost it. Really? Are y’all kidding? TRUMP? I can’t stand trail-of-dead-bodies HRC but, Trump was the best they could shove to the front?
Actually…going back further, I knew my country had shorted completely out when Obama was elected…twice. That’s when my government-brainwashed head realized that leaders aren’t elected, they are selected.
Now, I’m thinking about dumbass ‘W’, the Clinton machine, Daddy Bush, Reagan, Carter, Ford, Nixon, LBJ…
☹😖😫😩😳🤢🤮😠😡🤬🤯😵 I need a drink…
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I don’t know this for a fact, but the bits and pieces of US electoral history that I’ve picked up make me think they always were selected. American democracy has been a very controlled specimen.
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Excellent point.
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Ah well, we may be heading for sunlit uplands or heading for the slough of despond but at least we are doing it in an orderly queue.
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Which is, of course, all that matters. (Although Parliament looked a little disorderly last night, from what I’ve heard. I went to bed, so I have to take other people’s word for it.)
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Here’s a solution: set up a website asking the question again about whether we should leave or remain in the EU. Allow no campaigning, and give just one day for the vote. The resultant majority to remain, which I’m sure there would be, would mean that Brexit could be consigned to the dustbin of history, where it belongs. Then hold a regular general election to vote for a government which might just conceivably want to govern and do all the things that need to be done, but which have got sidetracked.
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A government that governs? What’s that look like? I’ve forgotten.
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Quite! It’s been a while…
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Quite honestly my “hide in a secret bunker with gin and comfy sofas until the apocalypse is over” idea is getting more and more appealing…
Either that or Lucy (portergirl) and I should storm parliament and take over…
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Plan B. Definitely. Storm parliament.
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to be honest, I more than half believe it would work…
noone knows what is going on anyway so two women in hats who walked in with purpose would probably be a relief. We could have cancelled brexit and started a new government before anyone noticed
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That, I think, is what was happening when people were taking Macron’s portrait down in France. A small group of people in fluorescent yellow vests would walk into a town hall or some other government building, very politely take the portrait down, and leave with it. Who’d think to question them? Until the pattern got to be known, at least. You have the advantage of surprise.
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Ooh yes!!
If we had hi vis vests on and clipboards no one would stop us!!
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Take photos, okay?
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of course!!
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Actually, I bought a hat not long ago. And I have a fluorescent vest cut for someone twice my size. Can I join you?
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Absolutely!!
You will be invaluable!!
After all a goverment of 3 women writers in hats is bound to be better than one of 2!!
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Great.
At some point we’ll have to figure out if we agree on anything other than hats, writing, and absurdity, but hey, I think that’s more than unites the Lib Dems right now, so we can put that off.
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Hats, writing and absurdity is much more than the entire government has to unite it at the moment, so I think it is a pretty sound base…
I am also keen on biscuits if that helps…
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This is beginning to look like a political platform to me.
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Me too!
It has a lot going for it…
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I’ll hide in the bunker whilst you go on with plan b
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I had to go back and remind myself what plan B is. I understand Parliament’s furnished itself with some very nice restaurants. How about if we bring you back a nice bit of shortbread?
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Yes please. I’m sure they have plenty of hoodies stockpiled
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Having read the correction of your correction before I found this–well, I’m glad I didn’t have to wonder how to respond. I’m sure they do have lots of hoodies. You never know when you’ll need one to go with your nice suit.
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Oh yeah. Hoodies with their suits would be a great idea. We’ll have to get them all pullover ones, and the back would have a slogan describing what they really think, the front a slogan which describes what they want to portray to the world.
Auto- corrupt is a good one!
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It changed from goodies :( and only saw that my spelkcheck rathers (fathers is what it wanted) after I sent.
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I love spellcheck. I can’t remember who calls it auto-corrupt–someone who leaves me wondrous comments–but she’s onto something.
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fair enough :-)
But I am taking (most of) the gin, it is integral to governmental success!
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You can have my share. Fair enough?
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that seems reasonable :-)
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I thought you’d have a hard time finding fault with it.
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You can have my share too, if you wish.
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Now, I remember to one of the “small” problems of a No-Deal-Brexit. Because then with effect of 1 November all wooden pallets used for transportation purposes will need special certificates and certifications. The whole trade can break down only because of this delicate issue. I doubt that all British enterprises are prepared for this damned regulation applicable for socalled third countries. Chaos guaranteed for long time also for many other reasons in fact on both sides of the Channel!
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I hadn’t heard about that, but I’m sure there are a thousand small things like that that no one’s expecting.
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EU diplomats declared that the EU will not negotiate anything with Boris Johnson who has lost his legitimation for such and as well the majority in the House of Commons. In fact the Brexit chief negotiator of the EU Michael Barnier actually follows other duties. So with whom does the British PM wants to make deal actually just something in the land of phantasy or liars. The absurdity is growing with every hour and minute.
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I don’t think his mind bothers with reality enough to need a negotiating partner. As long as he can claim it’s happening, that’s enough.
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If I were writing this as fiction, I’d have to either tone it down to the point where it was marginally credible or go over the top and call it satire.
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It’ll all end in tears.
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I’m not ruling that out, but I haven’t given up hope yet.
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I don’t know what to think of Brexit any more. At first, I thought it was a huge mistake but then the EU turned out to be such a huge disappoinment.
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I have major issues with the EU, but I’m going to go with Yannis Varoufakis on it: Reform the thing, don’t leave it. For one thing, it’s managed to avert any Europe-wide wars since it was formed. We’re far enough away from WWII to forget, on a daily basis, that that’s a possibility. Also, the issues involved in unwinding a country from it are daunting and are going to cause a lot of destruction, without the promise of anything better at the end. And on more limited scale, withdrawing would end a lot of our protections for working condition, human rights, and the environment. They’ve all been seriously eroded, but the good folks pushing for a withdrawal will cheerfully make a bonfire with what’s left. And then sell the NHS to US health care companies.
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Curious, what wars were prevented? I’ve been disappointed in how some things in Europe have been handled. Crimea is a good example, reminds me of the handing over of Czech to Nazi Germany.
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Wars there’ve been, including that horrible mess that came from the meltdown of Yugoslavia. What they haven’t done is escalate into Europe-wide ones.
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I know, I know….but it cannot not piss me off for so many reasons.
I’m still under the influence of what I read today. Serbia and Russia were not invited to the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the start of World War 2 in Poland. And Germany was (of course). Fact: 6 million Polish citizens killed. Fact: most casualties suffered by Soviet Union (whatever we might think of Putin): 24 mill., the States, the UK and Yugoslavia: 1 mill. (regardless of allying with Russia). I’m fed up with historical revisionism.
Irrelevant picture, as u would say, but it’s all somehow connected.
Fucking admit it. Money talks. History is sooo passe.
(I’m glad we both love Varoufakis. I just started reading him…again. My kinda guy.)
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They–whoever “they” are–started whitewashing Russia’s role in WWII back during the Cold War. Read a high school text and you’d barely know it was there, although they might (or might not) include some reference to winter. So, yeah, rewriting history? We’re good at it. But really, that is a disgrace, not symbolically coming together on one of the few things we might all manage to agree on.
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Precisely. One of the few things…
Let’s not forget Europe Day instead of Victory Day, when we, instead of mentioning it as the day when fascism was defeated, celebrate peace and unity in Europe.
Damn hypocrites.
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Defeated? It was? Somehow it doesn’t seem that way anymore.
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It was. We have sth different now.
I hate it when say politicians in power in Serbia call the oposition leaders fascists.
I mean…No comment.
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It really is a word that should be reserved for the genuine article–which unfortunately we have among us again.
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On the day that the US President congratulated Poland on the 80th anniversary of the Nazi takeover, I thought the day couldn’t get weirder..
Commons trumped Trump…….
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He did? There’s only a clearance of about 2 inches under my bed, but I think I’ll crawl under there and hide.
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Yeah, like other politicians he makes gaffs. If you want a reason to hide just wait until the 2020 election if Biden wins, as one columnist pointed out, he’s the verbal Gerald Ford. I’ve known few politicians who are any good at impromptu remarks. When I took a course in public speaking the teacher would, in the middle of a lecture, point to someone and ask an off-the-cuff question, the answer had to be started in less than 10 seconds, and was part of the grade for the course. I doubt anyone teaches like that anymore.
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That’s a brutal way to teach, but good training for those who come through it in one piece.
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Yep. But it taught you to think quickly, and carefully.
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So, how would they go about fillibustering an “anti no” deal? See who can be silent the longest?
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Hmm. I’ll think about that, consult the teacher who tried to convince me that a double negative is a positive, and get back to you in six months or so.
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Great! I’ll hold my breath.
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No problem.
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🤢
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Are you sure the order wasn’t for “mugs with t-shirts” or what people who aren’t in the Conservative party would call “voters”?
Every time the politics here in the US makes me think what could be crazier than this? The UK says “hold my tea and watch this”!
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A double laugh, one for each paragraph. Thank you.
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Bring in the Holy Grail (and Monty Python) for Brexit… It should make things better.
But yes, thanks for the update. I was very confused about the Brexit brouhaha this morning.
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If you’re not confused, you haven’t been paying attention.
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That is so true. Anyway, I look forward to read your updates!
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Thanks. That’s good to know. I worry that I’ll wear people down with them.
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Better than talking about the weather…?
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The weather might be a relief.
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What a farce it all is. Corbyn won’t agree to anything as a matter of principle. I can’t see Brexit ever happening.
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I don’t think it should, but really I think the only way out of things is to have a second referendum. More information’s available about what Brexit looks like now,with all its problems. It’s time to ask, are we doing this thing or not?
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Thanks again. The updates help but sounds like an odd way to run a country. Not sure why some people want to live and some want to stay. I will ask google. Maybe google will know. Don’t see how you can join a group of independent states together and make a country that works. Has the ever happened anywhere at all. If so, EU could use that as a model.
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When you consider that the 13 colonies considered themselves very separate–states didn’t at the time mean the same as provinces–you can see a bit of a parallel. I don’t want to push it too hard–it’s not a perfect parallel. But the EU isn’t a country, it’s a gathering of countries–a kind of confederation.
Oh, hell, ask Lord Google. He knows all.
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We had the articles of confederation. Did not work, the central government was too weak. So we wrote the constitution to make it stronger, and it still works, sort of. I don’t think the EU will work as a loose confederation. Never has. I still need to speak with Mr. Google.
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I don’t know enough about the EU’s workings to get into this conversation so I’m going to bail out.
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I have spent the day watching Parliament, its brilliant. No one has a clue what is going on, personally I think they need to find Cameron and put him in stocks so I can throw tomatoes at him.
I am still in hope that May is going to do something as a massive F you to Johnson.
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It would be hard not to, but I’d guess she’s entirely too well behaved. Pity.
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Given how today has ended, maybe she is doing it quietly
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Could well be. I don’t like her in any way, but I would like to think so.
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No, nor did I but I did feel sorry for her at times
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I can understand that.
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Have you got time to keep up with events? Another full day today.
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I’m falling behind. I’ll read tomorrow’s paper, compare the bits I want to follow up on to other articles, and probably give it a couple of days before I write another update. Barring either Armageddon or something even more absurd than has become standard, that is.
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Lost it already
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It’s a long game what nex?
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I wish I knew.
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My email got to your post just as MSNBC broke the news of the vote at 2:45 pm eastern daylight time US You were pretty prescient – and obviously much more to come. As I;ve said before, I;m following the Scots.
Will we see secessions (again) in the US of A now ? Stay tuned !
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Indeed.
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Mugs & T-shirts? Oh, we’re safe then. Macron has already done that at the Elysée. (Exeunt Lear and Kent)
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Yup. Whatever else happens with Brexit, we’ll have a supply of mugs and T-shirts. And if Macron’s paved the way, even Johnson should be able to handle it.
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Paving the way for the Russians or the Chinese to take over? ;)
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Every empire comes to an end, and so far a new one has eventually moved into the empty space. Whether it’ll be Chinese or Russian I have no idea. It’s not impossible. China’s certainly becoming a major world player. What either of them has as a plan I haven’t a clue.
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Don’t know either. What I have seen in Asia 2 years ago was impressive. It’s not just China. It’s most of the Asian countries. My personal recommendation to Europe would be to strike an alliance with Asia ASAP.
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I have been trying to educate myself about Brexit, and the more I read, the more confused I get. The one thing that is clear is that Boorish Johnson instills no confidence. He’s too buffoonish to bring a country together. The other thing that is clear is that Parliament is a lot more fun to watch than Congress. Bottom line, I think Queen Liz needs to smack all involved in the head with the handbags she is never seen without.
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The handbag’s probably empty. I’m told she never carries money.
I agree about Parliament being more fun to watch, because the horror comes with a heavy dose of absurdity. I don’t think Johnson’s at all interested in bringing the country together. The goal, I’m sure, is to split and then appeal to his base. Sound familiar?
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The queen might not carry any money, but have you seen Orange Is the New Black? I’m betting she has a purse filled with padlocks and is just waiting until someone really pisses her off.
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I have, but the queen never came to mind while I was watching it. Maybe I lack imagination.
You’d want a reinforced strap to make that work, wouldn’t you?
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No need. Just put the padlocks in a long sock. It’ll still fit in the bag. Oooh! Instead of padlocks, maybe she can stuff the sock with a bunch of crown jewels. There has to be some symbolism there.
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Lucky we have you to summarise for us. Glad I’m not a politician of any sort. The only position I would like in the House of Commons is the lady in the black gown who hands pieces of paper to the speaker after a vote. I think I could handle that.
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I don’t think I could handle any of it. Way too much ceremony, and I’m pretty sure you’re not supposed to start giggling. Or throwing things.
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I suppose the only valid question left is, what’s going to be printed on the mugs and t-shirts? … thank you for these synopses. It helps to have inside knowledge of how things work … and don’t work.
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I expect them to say something informative, like Get Ready for Brexit. That’s what the ad they showed said £100 million for that???
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Ah, a font of useful information then? – sarcasm mode fully engaged
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Yup. Endlessly useful, and a very large font size.
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This is fascinating and maddening and a bit weird. I did not know why the Commons wasn’t keen on a new election. That makes sense. Good grief, what a mess, but doesn’t Boris deserve it? I’m just not sure the rest of the citizenry do! It’s a bit worrisome. I think economies could go down like dominoes across the world given the right circumstances. But maybe this (and Trump) is just some sort of fantasy, apocalyptic novel. Would anyone believe it?
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Good grief indeed, and I agree, a no-deal Brexit could bring economies down. The reason Commons doesn’t want a new election is that this way of calling one would give Johnson control over the timing, and he’d time it to give himself the power to do what he wants–leave w/ no deal–while they sit helpless. It’s all hopelessly convoluted, but in the context of convoluted British procedures makes sense.
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It’s fascinating and sad. The detail about the rules surrounding the election is just another quirky thing about UK governance. Let’s hope no deal Brexit doesn’t happen.
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Good job taking this on and trying to make some degree of sense out of the day to day.
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Thanks. Emphasis on “some.”
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Seems politics are about the same all over the world, more or less. Thanks so much for linking up at the #WednesdayAIMLinkParty 44. Shared.
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You are nominated for The Real Neat Blog Award!!
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Thank you so much for doing that, but I don’t do awards. I try to keep a tight focus here and awards would pull me in too many directions. But really, I do appreciate the compliment.
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Oy.
That is all I have to say.
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That’s the wonderful thing about oy. It covers such a huge amount of territory.
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My head is spinning…
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That says you understand the situation. At least as well as anyone else does right now.
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You’re making me laugh again!
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Oh, good. That starts my day on a happy note–which is good because I’m running on 6 hours’ sleep and need to draw from some well other than the usual one.
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I know what you mean!
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Informative. Boris reminds me of a Trumpian Young Frankenstein. From the great film with Gene Wilder.
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It’s been a long (long, long) time since I’ve seen the film–long enough that I’m having trouble photoshopping him into it. The Trumpian part, unfortunately, I have no trouble with.
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You’re giving us a run for the money when it comes to broken democracy.
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Hey, we’re working on it.
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